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Latest Advisory On Tropical System In Northern Gulf Of Mexico

Here is the very latest on PTC2 as of 1 pm CDT…The intensity has not changed much and the latest NHC track has a moderate CAT 1 Hurricane making landfall Saturday between mid-morning and mid-afternoon. We will likely feel the effects of the outer bands later tonight and into the next few days. The Tropical Storm Watch extends from Morgan City to the Miss. River and Flash Flood Advisories have been issues for the parishes immediately east of Acadiana. Those will likely be extended westward in the next 12 to 24 hours. We will continue to keep you updated. Jason will have the next advisory which will be released at 400 pm CDT. The next 24 hours are critical for completing Hurricane Preparations.

At 100 PM CDT (1800 UTC), the disturbance was centered near latitude 28.3 North, longitude 86.7 West. The system is moving toward the west-southwest near 8 mph (13 km/h). A motion toward the west-southwest or southwest is expected through Thursday morning, followed by a turn toward the west late Thursday and a turn toward the west-northwest on Friday. By early Saturday, a northwest motion is expected. On the forecast track, the system is expected to approach the central U.S. Gulf Coast this weekend.

Maximum sustained winds are near 30 mph (45 km/h) with higher gusts. Strengthening is forecast during the next 72 hours, and the disturbance is forecast to become a tropical depression Thursday morning, a tropical storm Thursday night, and a hurricane on Friday.

Shower and thunderstorm activity has gradually been increasing in coverage and organization, and the low is likely to become a tropical depression or a tropical storm in the next day or so.
*Formation chance through 48 hours…high…near 100 percent
*Formation chance through 5 days…high…near 100 percent