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Tracking the Tropics: Disturbance near Hispaniola Could Develop This Weekend

Video Forecast

We will see a few more showers and thunderstorms around this afternoon, especially south of I-10. These will contain frequent lightning and heavy rain as they slowly move from east to west. Highs will top out in the lower 90s today if you miss out on the storms.
Today: Spotty showers and storms. High: 93°
Tonight: Clear. Muggy. Low: 77°
Thursday: An isolated storm is possible in the afternoon. Hot. High: 94°
We dry out Thursday and Friday as high pressure builds in. An isolated shower or storm may pop up during peak daytime heating, but most of the area will stay dry. By the weekend, a tropical wave will push into the Gulf of Mexico tailing an upper level low. This upper level low will keep wind shear over the system, helping it stay weak. However, because of the warm Gulf waters, there’s a medium chance that we get a tropical depression or weak tropical storm out of this. Regardless of if it gets a name, the impacts will remain the same: heavy rains and gusty winds along the Gulf Coast. There is still a spread in the models on where this will eventually end up, but the thinking now is that the surface low (tropical wave) will come ashore somewhere between New Orleans and the Big Bend area of Florida. Whether this strengthens to a tropical depression or tropical storm largely depends on its position relative to the upper level low. The closer it is to the upper level low, the more shear it will take on, leaving it weaker. The farther away, the stronger it gets. We’ll keep you updated on the system as it makes its way into the Gulf this weekend. Elsewhere, we continue to follow two other tropical waves. The one near the Lesser Antilles is expected to fall apart during the next few days. The one that is making its way off the coast of Africa will struggle through the next 5 days as there is a lot of wind shear and dry air around. However, next week upper level conditions improve and its very possible this area becomes a tropical storm. We’ll keep you updated as we track both areas.
– Meteorologist Adam Olivier